>Date: Tue, 30 Dec 2003 06:24:46 -0500 (EST)
>From: batz <batsy(a)vapour.net>
>To: nanog(a)merit.edu
>Subject: 2004 network predictions.
>
>Here are some dire predictions for 2004.
>
>While it would be easy to say that the world will end,
>I think these are all things that reasonably could happen,
>and we could act pre-emptively to mitigate their effects.
>
>
>- Virus infections of handhelds and mobile phones
> causing widespread problems for cell networks
> similar to worms that flood out IP networks.
> - Bonus points for a bluetooth infection vector.
> - Extra bonus points if it floods newly minted
> VoIP telecom networks. Grim.
>
>- E-mail whitelist technology gains mainstream acceptance
> as spam hits critical mass. Spam recieved by astronauts
> in space.
>
>- ISP's search for new business models realizing that wireless
> providers are making a mint charging by the kilobyte, and more
> users just surf at work.
>
>- Wireless network "terrorism" or "porn" incident galvanizes
> legislators to force hotspot operators to get ID or credit
> card numbers from customers.
>
>- Really Bad instant-messenger worm that we can't do anything
> about because it doesn't use consistant tcp/udp ports.
>
>- ISP's use managed anti-virus/security to sell new managed services
> to users. Birth of the fully provider managed home PC?
>
>- Affinity networks/six-degrees site privacy boondoggle.
> One is caught selling access data to airlines or
> transport security or something. Everyone feels sick
> as Friendster acquired by Equifax?
>
>- Private crypted networks used for P2P. Call them blacknets,
> darknets, or in true arrr-pirate fashion, booty-nets.
> yo-ho-ho.
>
>- Successful virtual worm network forged after a
> worm spreads its second phase and installs an onion
> routed virtual network. Maybe a new P2P network?
>
>- Linux kernel made illegal, somewhere, for a minute.
> Presidential candidate may admit to using it once,
> but didn't look at the source. RIAA/MPAA/DMCA a
> surprise US election issue.
>
>- LEA access to ISP's formalized, spearheaded by
> Cisco and its "lawful interception" capability.
> Court gag order placed on participating ISP's,
> disgruntled admin leaks details to Cryptome or
> Phrack.
>
>- More end-to-end control connections that
> identify/validate/authenticate end users. Eg,
> VPN's, SSL, PPP. An assault on anonymity and
> stateless protocols, or technologies that interrupt
> the statefulness of the connection between user and
> their primary providers. (eg, WiFi, P2P, UDP, VoIP).
>
>- P2P on the road to obselescence caused by higher metred
> bandwidth charges to home cable users in line with
> wireless costs. While there is a glut of bandwidth
> capacity available for transit, this is not the case
> for end-user consumption. Cable providers will lower
> bandwidth caps under the auspices of combatting piracy,
> enabling them to actually make money.
>
>
>Given these sort of predictions, I don't mind
>being wrong. Have a good year, I'll post again
>then. ;)
>
>
>--
>batz
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