I wouldn't have thought that while upstream would be an issue for most / many RSPs unless they are purchasing capacity for each direction which I have not heard of and am happy to be wrong here. I would have typically assumed that all RSPs would purchase symmetrical capacity between Chorus DSL and LFCs for their handovers (as you can't purchase a 10/1GB handover only 10GB or 100GB symmetrical) and it would also be symmetrical domestic and international.

So while "the other direction" will be getting more of a workout that shouldn't have too much of a tangible impact on the RSPs asides from the bump in peak time traffic.

LFCs in my view should/would have far more reason for concern as people move from 100/20 plans to GB plans and a 500Mbit upstream could very quickly saturate the PON if everyone started uploading large files or streaming video / sharing desktop as part of remote learning for schools.

From personal experience 100/20 was more than satisfactory for a house of 5 when the kids (11/13/15) were mostly consuming CDN data rather than creating it being on a Video chat with their peers/school and parents are working from home over VPN while on video conferences too.

My bet is those who haven't upgraded to GB will probably do so in 2-3 weeks once all the kids go back to school as by that point the schools should hopefully be up to speed with remote learning.

I still think CFH regulated plans and thus LFCs are missing a widespread adoption of an in between plan to offer to RSPs a 100-200/50-100 plan (I think 200/100 is the sweet spot right now) and GB. As the ONT would police traffic over the upstream rate and only impact the single subscriber vs getting congestion on the upstream PON and it is detrimental for everyone on that PON port. It also would mean that more splitter visits and resplicing if required where certain PON ports that may be getting congested. But I haven't seen any anecdotal reports of that.

Or perhaps it is just RSPs keeping their plans simple to reduce FAB complexity and CFH/LFCs have no real say as they are already offering those plans and RSPs are chosing not to take them up.

But that is just my guess. ��

Cheers, Peter

On Tue, Mar 31, 2020 at 12:57 PM Jason Orchard <Jason.Orchard@enable.net.nz> wrote:

Hi All

From where I'm sitting in Enable Network (LFC), I can see a different changes to "normal" time of day trends compared to the last 3 week of "normal" utilisation.
Once the whole country finally moved into level 4 lockdown, it's my opinion that all RSP and LFC network started to be tested, ��further to this last Friday night (27th) was the biggest peak utilisation Enable networks has every recorded.
����

While everyone is talking about how download utilisation has increased, we aren't talking about how the upload utilisation has also increase thought the roof and I'm just wonder what point the RSP and LFC will start having contention on the uploads?

Its good too see as a country we are all doing what we can to keep the internet running, and sharing information on overall performance. ��


I'm predicting that by about Thursday/Friday this week, ��we are all going to understand what the new Covid-19 utilisation "normal" looks like and we can plan for there.
Forecast models of utilisation growth is interesting to say the least, as there really isn't any historic data too looking back predict a patten and so far no one day has been the same as the other, we are keeping a very close eye working very hard to keep a contention free network, so the end user experience isn't impacted

On the most interesting things I've noticed when the country stop at Dinner Time as the overall utilisation decrease between 5.30pm and 6.30pm, then it ramps up again to the "normal" peaks 8-10.30pm.

��

Well that my 2 cents.�� @Ahmad Saeed (ahmad.saeed@huawei.com) Give me a call off the list and we can talk about your original questions. ��



Jason Orchard

Senior Network Engineer | Enable Networks Limited

DDI +64 3 741 5283

M������ +64 27 666 8468

www.enable.net.nz

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-----Original Message-----
From: William Liu <william.liu@aut.ac.nz>
Sent: Tuesday, 31 March 2020 12:00 PM
To: nznog@list.waikato.ac.nz
Subject: [nznog] Re: NZ Working From Home Traffic Profile

��

Just an interesting article to taste - "Everyone can contribute to data transmission management in a COVID-19 world"

https://www.aei.org/technology-and-innovation/everyone-can-contribute-to-data-transmission-management-in-a-covid-19-world/

��

Cheers Will

��

-----Original Message-----

From: ahmad.saeed@huawei.com <ahmad.saeed@huawei.com>

Sent: Tuesday, 31 March 2020 9:35 AM

To: nznog@list.waikato.ac.nz

Subject: [nznog] Re: NZ Working From Home Traffic Profile

��

I think daytime peak is already close to RWC peak now _______________________________________________

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