Jamie Baddeley asked:
One question that I'd have is how much of that IPv4 space is used, planned to be used, or will never be used? And then I'd ask that same question to APNIC members in NZ who've got IPv4 assignments. And then I'd ask the cellular providers who shall remain unnamed that recently started announcing a /16 of v4 what their expectations of that v4 assignment lifetime is. That's 'the canary in the mine' IMHO.
At last years Aussie ISOC IPv6 Summit, Paul Wilson, CEO of APNIC stated 10 years, possibly more if unused addresses reclaimed, Geoff Huston had an interesting conjecture as mentioned elsewhere in this thread etc. John Crain's suggestion that the Internet today is primarily IPv4 with pockets of IPv6, and is moving towards primarily IPv6 with pockets of IPv4 seems logical, but he fails to qualify that with a timeline. But perhaps the question that could instead be asked is "will something force migration to IPv6?" The US Military have long been suggesting that they will at some point in the next few years require all its suppliers to be on IPv6 end to end. This may have impact on many NZ organisations who supply various US military branches with agricultural, horticultural and viticultural goods.
I agree. Though there comes a point where the When is so far away, it starts to look like an If :-)
True enough, but some may believe that our own networks will grow over time, and that the easiest time to ever do a renumbering is now....
To that end, is there an enthusiasm within the NOG for NZ to be leaders, or are we content to be followers in the transition?
That's a fair question. Whilst there's seems to be no real solid business case to deploy it in the short term or a reason to entertain the idea, frankly at this point in proceedings being a watcher, or follower as you put it, is probably a sensible thing to do for *some* operators.
Now if we could convince *the rest of the world* to pay NZ to be a self contained, network of networks v6 test-bed that is an entirely different matter. That would certainly be worth leading on, and I'd be fairly excited about that.
Now that is an ambitious plan. Maybe Cisco could put up a prize of free beer for the entire nation for the first country to fully migrate? Keith Davidson