Jonathan Woolley wrote:
Perry, Excellent work. I've always been tempted to say "prove it" when people say [x]% of users only use email and http but end up just accepting that it's probably true.
Well, if you have any interesting questions like this, let me (or WAND) know. We do all this kind of analysis almost all day every day, and one of the hardest parts is coming up with fun things to look for in data.
I think the amount of "protocol diversity" here is a bit higher than a truly random sample if the following is true: 1. Netizens with less clue use less ports.
It's an interesting assumption. Given that peoples OS's appear to be using some protocols for a user without the user realising it (dns/ntp, and possibly http/ftp for updates etc) it's an interesting question what the "basic" subset of ports actually is. The less advanced people can probably still end up on MSN messenger (XP appears to demand that you LOGIN TO MSN NOW DAMMIT) and theres probably a few other protocols they just end up using as a matter of course.
2. Most netizens with less clue use dialup.
This I can't easily test. I'm not sure how valid it is as there are a large number of advanced users that can only use dialup for variety of reasons (too far from the exchange? Moving around and no fixed phone line for any length of time? Not enough ports in the exchange?), and a lot of people who are more basic users who are on DSL coz it makes their porn (er, webpages) load faster. Maybe ISP's should start sending our an IQ test with their signup packs so we can answer this. <grin>
3. Most DSL netizens with less clue use xtra.
Given the relative sizes of ISPs, it's probably also true to say "most DSL netizens use xtra".
4. You didn't have access to data from xtra customers.
Correct. Anyone want to give me some data for xtra customers? :)
Having said that, I think we can say *with some proof* that a large percentage of users would have serious problems if an ISP were to NAT everyone. And, if it's possible to draw one conclusion from the massive v6 thread (which I don't think it is but I'll try anyway), since NAT is not going to work at an ISP level even as a delay tactic - IPv6 must be implemented once IPv4 address space runs out.
The only questions are, will people invest early to make this a smooth transition? Will one/two/more/all vendors have such an easy migration path that you don't need to migrate early?
It'll be interesting to watch and see what ISP's do, and how it ends up working out :)