[nznog] Fwd: 2004 network predictions.

Date: Tue, 30 Dec 2003 06:24:46 -0500 (EST) From: batz To: nanog(a)merit.edu Subject: 2004 network predictions.

Here are some dire predictions for 2004.

While it would be easy to say that the world will end, I think these are all things that reasonably could happen, and we could act pre-emptively to mitigate their effects.

- Virus infections of handhelds and mobile phones causing widespread problems for cell networks similar to worms that flood out IP networks. - Bonus points for a bluetooth infection vector. - Extra bonus points if it floods newly minted VoIP telecom networks. Grim.

- E-mail whitelist technology gains mainstream acceptance as spam hits critical mass. Spam recieved by astronauts in space.

- ISP's search for new business models realizing that wireless providers are making a mint charging by the kilobyte, and more users just surf at work.

- Wireless network "terrorism" or "porn" incident galvanizes legislators to force hotspot operators to get ID or credit card numbers from customers.

- Really Bad instant-messenger worm that we can't do anything about because it doesn't use consistant tcp/udp ports.

- ISP's use managed anti-virus/security to sell new managed services to users. Birth of the fully provider managed home PC?

- Affinity networks/six-degrees site privacy boondoggle. One is caught selling access data to airlines or transport security or something. Everyone feels sick as Friendster acquired by Equifax?

- Private crypted networks used for P2P. Call them blacknets, darknets, or in true arrr-pirate fashion, booty-nets. yo-ho-ho.

- Successful virtual worm network forged after a worm spreads its second phase and installs an onion routed virtual network. Maybe a new P2P network?

- Linux kernel made illegal, somewhere, for a minute. Presidential candidate may admit to using it once, but didn't look at the source. RIAA/MPAA/DMCA a surprise US election issue.

- LEA access to ISP's formalized, spearheaded by Cisco and its "lawful interception" capability. Court gag order placed on participating ISP's, disgruntled admin leaks details to Cryptome or Phrack.

- More end-to-end control connections that identify/validate/authenticate end users. Eg, VPN's, SSL, PPP. An assault on anonymity and stateless protocols, or technologies that interrupt the statefulness of the connection between user and their primary providers. (eg, WiFi, P2P, UDP, VoIP).

- P2P on the road to obselescence caused by higher metred bandwidth charges to home cable users in line with wireless costs. While there is a glut of bandwidth capacity available for transit, this is not the case for end-user consumption. Cable providers will lower bandwidth caps under the auspices of combatting piracy, enabling them to actually make money.

Given these sort of predictions, I don't mind being wrong. Have a good year, I'll post again then. ;)

-- batz