Can I see the maths behind this? If you're talking about packet loss due to congestion and not using TCP then you're probably right
I assume he's talking about my TFRC math from http://wand.net.nz/~perry/max_download.php
Assuming you've saturated your link, a one bit in 'n' is going to take out one packet every so often (if it takes out more than that you're not going to get anything much worth discussing over your link in the first place). So increasing the MTU isn't going to make it more likely that a packet is lost, it just means you need to retransmit a larger packet.
However, since you're using larger MTU's, it's going to take you less RTT's to get back up to full speed on your link, and therefore your link will spend more of its time going at full rate than if you had a lower MTU (since it would require more RTT's at lower throughput before it
starts saturating the link again).
Ahh, ok. That's an interesting scenario. I'll have a look at the link Jono