On Sun, 2006-05-07 at 20:10 +1200, Simon Lyall wrote:
On Sun, 7 May 2006, Jamie Baddeley wrote:
On Sun, 2006-05-07 at 17:02 +1200, barry(a)unix.co.nz wrote:
But yeah IPv6 is just around the corner.
http://www.potaroo.net/ispcolumn/2003-07-v4-address-lifetime/ale.html
Given that it's 15-20 years before the sky falls roughly speaking, and we've had IPv4 for about the same amount of time, I think it's a fairly stunning achievement for a technology to have a lifetime of 40-50 years.
A dynamicly updated version is here (the version above is 3 years old):
Good Lord, what a lot of graphs :-)
"The date predicted by this model where the IPv4 unallocated address pool will be exhausted is 09-Sep-2011. A related prediction is the exhaustion of the IANA IPv4 unallocated address pool, which this model predicts will occur in 27-Aug-2012. "
"..This particular model predicts that the use of the unadvertised address pool to sustain further growth on the IPv4 public Internet may provide addresses to meet demands until 25-Mar-2027..." I suspect we're underestimating the responses that come about from managing what we currently have. But bringing the timeline forward to 2012 is an excellent way to draw that out. A part of me thinks that directly addressing 10 million laptops would be a really bad idea. There's a lot of opportunity in 10 million to have some less than secure systems introduced into the 10 Million mesh. Botnets ahoy! I think reality, sad though it may be, NAT and associated common security infrastructure will be deployed more widely as a result. But if someone managed to combine the Japanese Turtle with BadgerBadger, then yeah sure, IPv6 has some applications that may give someone a reason to pay for it :-) Aside from 'space' what does IPv6 give us that we can't currently do? Bugger all IMHO. Yes, there's some security aspects, but damn there's a bit of extra overhead too. jamie