Fwd: 2004 network predictions.

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Richard Naylor

30 Dec 2003 30 Dec '03

2:34 a.m.

Date: Tue, 30 Dec 2003 06:24:46 -0500 (EST) From: batz To: nanog(a)merit.edu Subject: 2004 network predictions.

Here are some dire predictions for 2004.

While it would be easy to say that the world will end, I think these are all things that reasonably could happen, and we could act pre-emptively to mitigate their effects.

- Virus infections of handhelds and mobile phones causing widespread problems for cell networks similar to worms that flood out IP networks. - Bonus points for a bluetooth infection vector. - Extra bonus points if it floods newly minted VoIP telecom networks. Grim.

- E-mail whitelist technology gains mainstream acceptance as spam hits critical mass. Spam recieved by astronauts in space.

- ISP's search for new business models realizing that wireless providers are making a mint charging by the kilobyte, and more users just surf at work.

- Wireless network "terrorism" or "porn" incident galvanizes legislators to force hotspot operators to get ID or credit card numbers from customers.

- Really Bad instant-messenger worm that we can't do anything about because it doesn't use consistant tcp/udp ports.

- ISP's use managed anti-virus/security to sell new managed services to users. Birth of the fully provider managed home PC?

- Affinity networks/six-degrees site privacy boondoggle. One is caught selling access data to airlines or transport security or something. Everyone feels sick as Friendster acquired by Equifax?

- Private crypted networks used for P2P. Call them blacknets, darknets, or in true arrr-pirate fashion, booty-nets. yo-ho-ho.

- Successful virtual worm network forged after a worm spreads its second phase and installs an onion routed virtual network. Maybe a new P2P network?

- Linux kernel made illegal, somewhere, for a minute. Presidential candidate may admit to using it once, but didn't look at the source. RIAA/MPAA/DMCA a surprise US election issue.

- LEA access to ISP's formalized, spearheaded by Cisco and its "lawful interception" capability. Court gag order placed on participating ISP's, disgruntled admin leaks details to Cryptome or Phrack.

- More end-to-end control connections that identify/validate/authenticate end users. Eg, VPN's, SSL, PPP. An assault on anonymity and stateless protocols, or technologies that interrupt the statefulness of the connection between user and their primary providers. (eg, WiFi, P2P, UDP, VoIP).

- P2P on the road to obselescence caused by higher metred bandwidth charges to home cable users in line with wireless costs. While there is a glut of bandwidth capacity available for transit, this is not the case for end-user consumption. Cable providers will lower bandwidth caps under the auspices of combatting piracy, enabling them to actually make money.

Given these sort of predictions, I don't mind being wrong. Have a good year, I'll post again then. ;)

-- batz

Show replies by date

Keith Davidson

30 Dec 30 Dec

2:49 a.m.

Richard Naylor forwarded:

...

...
Here are some dire predictions for 2004. <snip>

Gosh, and I had so much been looking forward to the new year. I think I'll just go slit my wrists at midnight.... Thanks for the cheer up Richard :-) Keith Davidson

Matthew Poole

2:59 a.m.

On Wed, 31 Dec 2003, Keith Davidson wrote:

...

Richard Naylor forwarded:

...
...
Here are some dire predictions for 2004. <snip>

Gosh, and I had so much been looking forward to the new year. I think I'll just go slit my wrists at midnight.... Thanks for the cheer up Richard :-)

Yes, he's such a jolly, joyous fellow :P One hopes that those predictions are to the left of pessimistic, but given the way things were this year I have a sinking feeling that they're going to prove somewhat to the right of optimistic.

Don Gould - BVC

8:38 a.m.

Ok I've actually got some questions and comments because this set me thinking... Please excuse my having the odd rant as well... :) On Wed, 31 Dec 2003 10:34:55 +1300, Richard Naylor wrote

...

...
- Virus infections of handhelds and mobile phones causing widespread problems for cell networks similar to worms that flood out IP networks.

The result of this would be what? Pushing more processing power in to the handheld deviced so that they can protect them selves from these problems?

...

...
- Bonus points for a bluetooth infection vector.

Now there's a technology that I'm still to understand a benefit for. I've read a number of books on it recently and am still left wondering why not just make every device 802.11x compliang and reducing the number of translations between different things that need to be done along the way.... Perhaps I'm just missing the point?

...

...
- Extra bonus points if it floods newly minted VoIP telecom networks. Grim.

Bring it on!!! ???? This might seem like an insane comment given the mission that many of us round here clearly have but answer me this... Will this result in us just opening up bigger pipes to carry the load? VoIP doesn't need much capacity. If we open the pipe so wide then will it be that the VoIP can just slip thur anyway? Please, don't flame and bash me... reason with me... I don't know that I'm right and I'd like to understand more.

...

...
- E-mail whitelist technology gains mainstream acceptance as spam hits critical mass. Spam recieved by astronauts in space.

I'd like to know how to make viagra free to anyone who ever wanted it - pick it up at the super market along with your condoms! That might bring an end to the 20 viagra messages I get each day? How do we take the value out of products that spammers sell?

...

...
- ISP's search for new business models realizing that wireless providers are making a mint charging by the kilobyte, and more users just surf at work.

Care factor on this one in the Western world is zero as long as the ligislators keep the rules we have in NZ the same. If wifi sellers are making a mint then others are going to find out and join the bandwagon... this then leads to more compeition which leads to more use of the technology. Eventually people will have the equipment and realise that they can do things for free/own fixed costs. Is there something I'm missing here?

...

...
- Wireless network "terrorism" or "porn" incident galvanizes legislators to force hotspot operators to get ID or credit card numbers from customers.

So what? You have to present id to get a mobile phone... What are you doing with the service that causes you to be so worried? Will this simply take the value out of hot spots and lead to the data being given away for free?

...

...
- Really Bad instant-messenger worm that we can't do anything about because it doesn't use consistant tcp/udp ports.

Will this just force everyone back to following a set of standards? Will this just cause smarter im software to be written? Will this just cause systems to open connections to other systems and hold them open for ever?

...

...
- ISP's use managed anti-virus/security to sell new managed services to users. Birth of the fully provider managed home PC?

Is this such a bad thing? Some of us have provider managed housing (I rent). This will lead on to a war of managed service providers followed by a war or software systems that claim to release you from the need to have managed providers... hummm... history lesson time here? This is just a cycle that we keep going thru - should we have a problem with that?

...

...
- Affinity networks/six-degrees site privacy boondoggle. One is caught selling access data to airlines or transport security or something. Everyone feels sick as Friendster acquired by Equifax?

lol... hummm... everyone get on planes because it's safe this week... everyone get of planes next week because it's not safe... everyone on, everyone off, everyone on, everyone off, this seems to be a cycle as well. This is driving us to learn more about our universe! The people want the geeks to work out safe ways to image scan everything... We have to work out how to look at very bit of bagage that goes on a plane (as we can't tell people they can't take their own things) we have to develop mri to the point where people can be viewed as they walk thru a scanner... Think of the potential for health care if the airline industry was to drive down the cost of mri equipment? This puts us on course to eventually learn to teleport (star trek here we come!) Is this such a bad thing?

...

...
- Private crypted networks used for P2P. Call them blacknets, darknets, or in true arrr-pirate fashion, booty-nets. yo-ho-ho.

pfft... there was a secret handshake to get into the tree hut when I was a kid. what's changed?

...

...
- Successful virtual worm network forged after a worm spreads its second phase and installs an onion routed virtual network. Maybe a new P2P network?

And would this one be bad?

...

...
- Linux kernel made illegal, somewhere, for a minute. Presidential candidate may admit to using it once, but didn't look at the source. RIAA/MPAA/DMCA a surprise US election issue.

I have no doubt that this one will happen at some time in the next 25 years. Are they really this silly in the US now?

...

...
- LEA access to ISP's formalized, spearheaded by Cisco and its "lawful interception" capability. Court gag order placed on participating ISP's, disgruntled admin leaks details to Cryptome or Phrack.

You mean this hasn't happened already?

...

...
- More end-to-end control connections that identify/validate/authenticate end users. Eg, VPN's, SSL, PPP. An assault on anonymity and stateless protocols, or technologies that interrupt the statefulness of the connection between user and their primary providers. (eg, WiFi, P2P, UDP, VoIP).

Frankly I think this one is a 'washing machine' exercise as well. I'm working on a project at present using vpn. <rant> I looked at using Ipv6 and got told to stick to IPv4. You have to jump thru hoops to get IPv4 address space even thou there's 1.5 billion unallocated addresses. As I understand it you also have to pay for address space now and developing on a limited budget I have neither time nor money to jump thru hoops. </rant>

...

...
- P2P on the road to obselescence caused by higher metred bandwidth charges to home cable users in line with wireless costs. While there is a glut of bandwidth capacity available for transit, this is not the case for end-user consumption. Cable providers will lower bandwidth caps under the auspices of combatting piracy, enabling them to actually make money.

ba. This happened already. This is a washing machine cycle process to drive uptake of data use and drive the creation of neighbourhood owned networks.

...

...
Given these sort of predictions, I don't mind being wrong. Have a good year, I'll post again then. ;)

...

...
batz

Richard if you know this guy thank him for his rant... I really enjoyed it and it made me think :) Cheers DiG -- Don Gould The technology exists to give every home 10mbits per second for $10 per month! Ask not what your telephone company should do for you... ...but what you can do for your broadband community!

Michael Hallager

9:14 a.m.

I predict that past issues with continue to surface, like small poorly managed ISP's failing and leaving their clients high and dry... CPU's (AMD and Intel) will continue to get faster and faster, more speed then what Joe Average computer user needs now (Excluding MS bloatware). And that doomsday is not nigh, so feel free to party hard tonight. :-)

...

Ok I've actually got some questions and comments because this set me thinking...

Please excuse my having the odd rant as well... :)

On Wed, 31 Dec 2003 10:34:55 +1300, Richard Naylor wrote

...
...
- Virus infections of handhelds and mobile phones causing widespread problems for cell networks similar to worms that flood out IP networks.

The result of this would be what? Pushing more processing power in to the handheld deviced so that they can protect them selves from these problems?

...
...
- Bonus points for a bluetooth infection vector.

Now there's a technology that I'm still to understand a benefit for. I've read a number of books on it recently and am still left wondering why not just make every device 802.11x compliang and reducing the number of translations between different things that need to be done along the way....

Perhaps I'm just missing the point?

...
...
- Extra bonus points if it floods newly minted VoIP telecom networks. Grim.

Bring it on!!! ????

This might seem like an insane comment given the mission that many of us round here clearly have but answer me this...

Will this result in us just opening up bigger pipes to carry the load?

VoIP doesn't need much capacity. If we open the pipe so wide then will it be that the VoIP can just slip thur anyway?

Please, don't flame and bash me... reason with me... I don't know that I'm right and I'd like to understand more.

...
...
- E-mail whitelist technology gains mainstream acceptance as spam hits critical mass. Spam recieved by astronauts in space.

I'd like to know how to make viagra free to anyone who ever wanted it - pick it up at the super market along with your condoms! That might bring an end to the 20 viagra messages I get each day?

How do we take the value out of products that spammers sell?

...
...
- ISP's search for new business models realizing that wireless providers are making a mint charging by the kilobyte, and more users just surf at work.

Care factor on this one in the Western world is zero as long as the ligislators keep the rules we have in NZ the same.

If wifi sellers are making a mint then others are going to find out and join the bandwagon... this then leads to more compeition which leads to more use of the technology.

Eventually people will have the equipment and realise that they can do things for free/own fixed costs.

Is there something I'm missing here?

...
...
- Wireless network "terrorism" or "porn" incident galvanizes legislators to force hotspot operators to get ID or credit card numbers from customers.

So what? You have to present id to get a mobile phone... What are you doing with the service that causes you to be so worried?

Will this simply take the value out of hot spots and lead to the data being given away for free?

...
...
- Really Bad instant-messenger worm that we can't do anything about because it doesn't use consistant tcp/udp ports.

Will this just force everyone back to following a set of standards?

Will this just cause smarter im software to be written?

Will this just cause systems to open connections to other systems and hold them open for ever?

...
...
- ISP's use managed anti-virus/security to sell new managed services to users. Birth of the fully provider managed home PC?

Is this such a bad thing? Some of us have provider managed housing (I rent).

This will lead on to a war of managed service providers followed by a war or software systems that claim to release you from the need to have managed providers... hummm... history lesson time here? This is just a cycle that we keep going thru - should we have a problem with that?

...
...
- Affinity networks/six-degrees site privacy boondoggle. One is caught selling access data to airlines or transport security or something. Everyone feels sick as Friendster acquired by Equifax?

lol... hummm... everyone get on planes because it's safe this week... everyone get of planes next week because it's not safe... everyone on, everyone off, everyone on, everyone off, this seems to be a cycle as well.

This is driving us to learn more about our universe!

The people want the geeks to work out safe ways to image scan everything...

We have to work out how to look at very bit of bagage that goes on a plane (as we can't tell people they can't take their own things) we have to develop mri to the point where people can be viewed as they walk thru a scanner...

Think of the potential for health care if the airline industry was to drive down the cost of mri equipment?

This puts us on course to eventually learn to teleport (star trek here we come!)

Is this such a bad thing?

...
...
- Private crypted networks used for P2P. Call them blacknets, darknets, or in true arrr-pirate fashion, booty-nets. yo-ho-ho.

pfft... there was a secret handshake to get into the tree hut when I was a kid. what's changed?

...
...
- Successful virtual worm network forged after a worm spreads its second phase and installs an onion routed virtual network. Maybe a new P2P network?

And would this one be bad?

...
...
- Linux kernel made illegal, somewhere, for a minute. Presidential candidate may admit to using it once, but didn't look at the source. RIAA/MPAA/DMCA a surprise US election issue.

I have no doubt that this one will happen at some time in the next 25 years.

Are they really this silly in the US now?

...
...
- LEA access to ISP's formalized, spearheaded by Cisco and its "lawful interception" capability. Court gag order placed on participating ISP's, disgruntled admin leaks details to Cryptome or Phrack.

You mean this hasn't happened already?

...
...
- More end-to-end control connections that identify/validate/authenticate end users. Eg, VPN's, SSL, PPP. An assault on anonymity and stateless protocols, or technologies that interrupt the statefulness of the connection between user and their primary providers. (eg, WiFi, P2P, UDP, VoIP).

Frankly I think this one is a 'washing machine' exercise as well.

I'm working on a project at present using vpn.

<rant> I looked at using Ipv6 and got told to stick to IPv4.

You have to jump thru hoops to get IPv4 address space even thou there's 1.5 billion unallocated addresses.

As I understand it you also have to pay for address space now and developing on a limited budget I have neither time nor money to jump thru hoops.

</rant>

...
...
- P2P on the road to obselescence caused by higher metred bandwidth charges to home cable users in line with wireless costs. While there is a glut of bandwidth capacity available for transit, this is not the case for end-user consumption. Cable providers will lower bandwidth caps under the auspices of combatting piracy, enabling them to actually make money.

ba. This happened already.

This is a washing machine cycle process to drive uptake of data use and drive the creation of neighbourhood owned networks.

...
...
Given these sort of predictions, I don't mind being wrong. Have a good year, I'll post again then. ;)

batz

Richard if you know this guy thank him for his rant... I really enjoyed it and it made me think :)

Cheers DiG -- Don Gould The technology exists to give every home 10mbits per second for $10 per month!

Ask not what your telephone company should do for you... ...but what you can do for your broadband community! _______________________________________________ NZNOG mailing list NZNOG(a)list.waikato.ac.nz http://list.waikato.ac.nz/mailman/listinfo/nznog

-- // Michael Hallager Director || Head geek || Making IT work. URL: http://www.networkstuff.co.nz networkStuff, NZ's leading supplier of high quality used networking equipment. Phone: 09 837-6100 (DDI) 0800 638-788 (Freecall) Fax: 09 837-8100 0800 329-788 (Freecall) Mobile: 027 477-7624

Steve Withers

31 Dec 31 Dec

6:04 a.m.

On Wed, 2003-12-31 at 16:38, Don Gould - BVC wrote:

...

So what? You have to present id to get a mobile phone... What are you doing with the service that causes you to be so worried?

Vodafone pre-pay phones in NZ require no ID. You just pick up the box and pay at the counter. If you don't make the effort to register the phone, and always use the cash-equivalent recharge cards (and not your credit card), no one will know who owns it.

Steve Withers

6:01 a.m.

On Wed, 2003-12-31 at 10:34, Richard Naylor wrote:

...

...
- ISP's search for new business models realizing that wireless providers are making a mint charging by the kilobyte, and more users just surf at work.

Or.... Wireless - like CompServe in 1985 - remains the preserve of a very small group of large corporate IT people and C*Os who can 'afford' to use it. :-)

...

-- Steve Withers

Tristram Cheer

1 Jan 1 Jan

2:37 p.m.

Looks Like Someone Read This One http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,4149,1424750,00.asp http://slashdot.org/articles/04/01/02/0356230.shtml?tid=126&tid=172&tid=185& tid=190&tid=201 I don't know too much about it but I don't think its quite upto random tcp/udp port scale Regards

...

- Really Bad instant-messenger worm that we can't do anything about because it doesn't use consistant tcp/udp ports.

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participants (7)

Don Gould - BVC
Keith Davidson
Matthew Poole
Michael Hallager
Richard Naylor
Steve Withers
Tristram Cheer