Are you suggesting changing the thread to "NZ Not Working From Home Traffic Profile" ... I'm actually concerned about day time peak which is growing

I'm curious about the upstream (ie. residential to internet) usage. One provider in AU shows 10% growth in internet downstream (to residential) but 27% in upstream in the same period. Upstream won't make a big difference as it's still 1:10 but a fascinating change in behaviours. On Mon, Mar 30, 2020 at 2:57 PM Brian E Carpenter < brian.e.carpenter(a)gmail.com> wrote:

I think you'll see even more this week as teaching via Zoom picks up rapidly. At least the U of Auckland is starting that in a big way.

(Worldwide, weekday IPv6 is picking up too, according to the Google stats.)

Regards Brian Carpenter

On 30-Mar-20 16:57, ahmad.saeed(a)huawei.com wrote:

...

Are you suggesting changing the thread to "NZ Not Working From Home Traffic Profile" ... I'm actually concerned about day time peak which is growing _______________________________________________ NZNOG mailing list -- nznog(a)list.waikato.ac.nz To unsubscribe send an email to nznog-leave(a)list.waikato.ac.nz

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Now if only there was something that could cast to multi’s..... :) Sent from my iPhone

On 30/03/2020, at 18:04, ahmad.saeed(a)huawei.com wrote:

U of Auckland : Let's say 25% of their 40K students will use Zoom at any tie @1.5Mbps (HD) then that's 15Gbps added to the day time impact on Auckland _______________________________________________ NZNOG mailing list -- nznog(a)list.waikato.ac.nz To unsubscribe send an email to nznog-leave(a)list.waikato.ac.nz

I think daytime peak is already close to RWC peak now

Hi All

From where I'm sitting in Enable Network (LFC), I can see a different changes to "normal" time of day trends compared to the last 3 week of "normal" utilisation. Once the whole country finally moved into level 4 lockdown, it's my opinion that all RSP and LFC network started to be tested, further to this last Friday night (27th) was the biggest peak utilisation Enable networks has every recorded.

While everyone is talking about how download utilisation has increased, we aren't talking about how the upload utilisation has also increase thought the roof and I'm just wonder what point the RSP and LFC will start having contention on the uploads? Its good too see as a country we are all doing what we can to keep the internet running, and sharing information on overall performance. I'm predicting that by about Thursday/Friday this week, we are all going to understand what the new Covid-19 utilisation "normal" looks like and we can plan for there. Forecast models of utilisation growth is interesting to say the least, as there really isn't any historic data too looking back predict a patten and so far no one day has been the same as the other, we are keeping a very close eye working very hard to keep a contention free network, so the end user experience isn't impacted On the most interesting things I've noticed when the country stop at Dinner Time as the overall utilisation decrease between 5.30pm and 6.30pm, then it ramps up again to the "normal" peaks 8-10.30pm. Well that my 2 cents. @Ahmad Saeed (ahmad.saeed(a)huawei.com)mailto:ahmad.saeed(a)huawei.com Give me a call off the list and we can talk about your original questions. Jason Orchard Senior Network Engineer | Enable Networks Limited DDI +64 3 741 5283 M +64 27 666 8468 www.enable.net.nz -----Original Message----- From: William Liu Sent: Tuesday, 31 March 2020 12:00 PM To: nznog(a)list.waikato.ac.nz Subject: [nznog] Re: NZ Working From Home Traffic Profile Just an interesting article to taste - "Everyone can contribute to data transmission management in a COVID-19 world" https://www.aei.org/technology-and-innovation/everyone-can-contribute-to-dat... Cheers Will -----Original Message----- From: ahmad.saeed(a)huawei.commailto:ahmad.saeed(a)huawei.com mailto:ahmad.saeed(a)huawei.com> Sent: Tuesday, 31 March 2020 9:35 AM To: nznog(a)list.waikato.ac.nzmailto:nznog(a)list.waikato.ac.nz Subject: [nznog] Re: NZ Working From Home Traffic Profile I think daytime peak is already close to RWC peak now _______________________________________________ NZNOG mailing list -- nznog(a)list.waikato.ac.nzmailto:nznog(a)list.waikato.ac.nz To unsubscribe send an email to nznog-leave(a)list.waikato.ac.nzmailto:nznog-leave(a)list.waikato.ac.nz _______________________________________________ NZNOG mailing list -- nznog(a)list.waikato.ac.nzmailto:nznog(a)list.waikato.ac.nz To unsubscribe send an email to nznog-leave(a)list.waikato.ac.nzmailto:nznog-leave(a)list.waikato.ac.nz The information contained in this message and/or attachments is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. Any review, re-transmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited. If you received this in error, please contact the sender and delete the material from any system and destroy any copies Save a tree. Please think before printing this email.

I wouldn't have thought that while upstream would be an issue for most / many RSPs unless they are purchasing capacity for each direction which I have not heard of and am happy to be wrong here. I would have typically assumed that all RSPs would purchase symmetrical capacity between Chorus DSL and LFCs for their handovers (as you can't purchase a 10/1GB handover only 10GB or 100GB symmetrical) and it would also be symmetrical domestic and international. So while "the other direction" will be getting more of a workout that shouldn't have too much of a tangible impact on the RSPs asides from the bump in peak time traffic. LFCs in my view should/would have far more reason for concern as people move from 100/20 plans to GB plans and a 500Mbit upstream could very quickly saturate the PON if everyone started uploading large files or streaming video / sharing desktop as part of remote learning for schools.

From personal experience 100/20 was more than satisfactory for a house of 5 when the kids (11/13/15) were mostly consuming CDN data rather than creating it being on a Video chat with their peers/school and parents are working from home over VPN while on video conferences too.

My bet is those who haven't upgraded to GB will probably do so in 2-3 weeks once all the kids go back to school as by that point the schools should hopefully be up to speed with remote learning. I still think CFH regulated plans and thus LFCs are missing a widespread adoption of an in between plan to offer to RSPs a 100-200/50-100 plan (I think 200/100 is the sweet spot right now) and GB. As the ONT would police traffic over the upstream rate and only impact the single subscriber vs getting congestion on the upstream PON and it is detrimental for everyone on that PON port. It also would mean that more splitter visits and resplicing if required where certain PON ports that may be getting congested. But I haven't seen any anecdotal reports of that. Or perhaps it is just RSPs keeping their plans simple to reduce FAB complexity and CFH/LFCs have no real say as they are already offering those plans and RSPs are chosing not to take them up. But that is just my guess. Cheers, Peter On Tue, Mar 31, 2020 at 12:57 PM Jason Orchard wrote:

Hi All

From where I'm sitting in Enable Network (LFC), I can see a different changes to "normal" time of day trends compared to the last 3 week of "normal" utilisation. Once the whole country finally moved into level 4 lockdown, it's my opinion that all RSP and LFC network started to be tested, further to this last Friday night (27th) was the biggest peak utilisation Enable networks has every recorded.

While everyone is talking about how download utilisation has increased, we aren't talking about how the upload utilisation has also increase thought the roof and I'm just wonder what point the RSP and LFC will start having contention on the uploads?

Its good too see as a country we are all doing what we can to keep the internet running, and sharing information on overall performance.

I'm predicting that by about Thursday/Friday this week, we are all going to understand what the new Covid-19 utilisation "normal" looks like and we can plan for there. Forecast models of utilisation growth is interesting to say the least, as there really isn't any historic data too looking back predict a patten and so far no one day has been the same as the other, we are keeping a very close eye working very hard to keep a contention free network, so the end user experience isn't impacted

On the most interesting things I've noticed when the country stop at Dinner Time as the overall utilisation decrease between 5.30pm and 6.30pm, then it ramps up again to the "normal" peaks 8-10.30pm.

Well that my 2 cents. @Ahmad Saeed (ahmad.saeed(a)huawei.com) Give me a call off the list and we can talk about your original questions.

Jason Orchard

Senior Network Engineer | Enable Networks Limited

DDI +64 3 741 5283

M +64 27 666 8468

www.enable.net.nz

-----Original Message----- From: William Liu Sent: Tuesday, 31 March 2020 12:00 PM To: nznog(a)list.waikato.ac.nz Subject: [nznog] Re: NZ Working From Home Traffic Profile

Just an interesting article to taste - "Everyone can contribute to data transmission management in a COVID-19 world"

https://www.aei.org/technology-and-innovation/everyone-can-contribute-to-dat...

Cheers Will

-----Original Message-----

From: ahmad.saeed(a)huawei.com

Sent: Tuesday, 31 March 2020 9:35 AM

To: nznog(a)list.waikato.ac.nz

Subject: [nznog] Re: NZ Working From Home Traffic Profile

I think daytime peak is already close to RWC peak now _______________________________________________

NZNOG mailing list -- nznog(a)list.waikato.ac.nz To unsubscribe send an email to nznog-leave(a)list.waikato.ac.nz

_______________________________________________

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To unsubscribe send an email to nznog-leave(a)list.waikato.ac.nz

The information contained in this message and/or attachments is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. Any review, re-transmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited. If you received this in error, please contact the sender and delete the material from any system and destroy any copies

Save a tree. Please think before printing this email. _______________________________________________ NZNOG mailing list -- nznog(a)list.waikato.ac.nz To unsubscribe send an email to nznog-leave(a)list.waikato.ac.nz

On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 at 10:02, Brent Marquis wrote:

I agree with the opinion that upstream is unlikely to be an issue.

[snip]

1. Upstream queuing/shaping to get onto the PON segment is actually useful, as the 500mbps policer on the other side (required for us to mean SLAs) is not TCP friendly, if CPEs aren’t shaping to the actual plan rate

What an interesting comment! I wonder if this would have any real world impact on upstream performance on FibreMAX plans - or if one might observe difference performance between Chorus and other LFCs?

Cheers- N

I believe they are all have passed CIP End_user acceptance (not sure why it was called that name 9 years ago) In my humble opinion the uplink policing was bad idea but it was required for the SLA , my experience tells me that when you have packet it is better to pass it on rather than queuing it while you can, this is an opportunistic approach as you never know what comes next Regards Ahmad Saeed Wireline Networks Product Manager Mobile +64 (0) 21 877794 [cid:image002.gif(a)01CBDF2B.8265D290] Huawei Technologies (NZ) Co. Ltd. Level 23, Huawei Centre, 120 Albert Street, Auckland CBD, New Zealand Web: www.huawei.comhttp://www.huawei.com/ ________________________________ This e-mail and its attachments may contain privileged, confidential or copyright information from HUAWEI. Any use of the information contained herein in any way (including, but not limited to, total or partial disclosure, reproduction, or dissemination) by persons other than the intended recipient(s) is prohibited. If you receive this e-mail in error, please notify the sender by phone or e-mail and delete it immediately. ________________________________ From: Brent Marquis [mailto:Brent.Marquis(a)chorus.co.nz] Sent: Wednesday, 1 April 2020 10:22 AM To: Neil Gardner Cc: Jason Orchard ; nznog(a)list.waikato.ac.nz Subject: [nznog] Re: NZ Working From Home Traffic Profile There are many nuanced differences in the services, hardware and implementations between the LFCs. We don’t test each others networks, so I cant tell you what they all are. Sorry! From: Neil Gardner mailto:nznog(a)neilnz.com> Sent: Wednesday, 1 April 2020 10:13 AM To: Brent Marquis mailto:Brent.Marquis(a)chorus.co.nz> Cc: Peter Lambrechtsen mailto:peter(a)crypt.co.nz>; Jason Orchard mailto:Jason.Orchard(a)enable.net.nz>; nznog(a)list.waikato.ac.nzmailto:nznog(a)list.waikato.ac.nz Subject: Re: [nznog] Re: NZ Working From Home Traffic Profile On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 at 10:02, Brent Marquis mailto:Brent.Marquis(a)chorus.co.nz> wrote: I agree with the opinion that upstream is unlikely to be an issue. [snip] 2. Upstream queuing/shaping to get onto the PON segment is actually useful, as the 500mbps policer on the other side (required for us to mean SLAs) is not TCP friendly, if CPEs aren’t shaping to the actual plan rate What an interesting comment! I wonder if this would have any real world impact on upstream performance on FibreMAX plans - or if one might observe difference performance between Chorus and other LFCs? Cheers- N The content of this email (including any attachments) is intended for the addressee only, is confidential and may be legally privileged. If you’ve received this email in error, you shouldn’t read it - please contact me immediately, destroy it, and do not copy or use any of the content of this email . No confidentiality or privilege is waived or lost by any mis-transmission or error. This communication does not designate an information system for the purposes of Part 4 of the Contract and Commercial Law Act 2017. Although we have taken reasonable precautions to ensure no viruses are present in this email, we cannot accept responsibility for any loss or damage arising from the use of this email or its attachments.

I think we should be grateful to the Rugby World Cup for the capacity upgrades Go ALL Black Ahmad Saeed From: Peter Lambrechtsen [mailto:peter(a)crypt.co.nz] Sent: Wednesday, 1 April 2020 10:43 AM To: Brent Marquis Cc: Jason Orchard ; nznog(a)list.waikato.ac.nz Subject: [nznog] Re: NZ Working From Home Traffic Profile On Wed, Apr 1, 2020 at 10:21 AM Brent Marquis mailto:Brent.Marquis(a)chorus.co.nz> wrote: There are many nuanced differences in the services, hardware and implementations between the LFCs. We don’t test each others networks, so I cant tell you what they all are. Sorry! From: Neil Gardner mailto:nznog(a)neilnz.com> Sent: Wednesday, 1 April 2020 10:13 AM To: Brent Marquis mailto:Brent.Marquis(a)chorus.co.nz> Cc: Peter Lambrechtsen mailto:peter(a)crypt.co.nz>; Jason Orchard mailto:Jason.Orchard(a)enable.net.nz>; nznog(a)list.waikato.ac.nzmailto:nznog(a)list.waikato.ac.nz Subject: Re: [nznog] Re: NZ Working From Home Traffic Profile On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 at 10:02, Brent Marquis mailto:Brent.Marquis(a)chorus.co.nz> wrote: I agree with the opinion that upstream is unlikely to be an issue. [snip] 1. Upstream queuing/shaping to get onto the PON segment is actually useful, as the 500mbps policer on the other side (required for us to mean SLAs) is not TCP friendly, if CPEs aren’t shaping to the actual plan rate What an interesting comment! I wonder if this would have any real world impact on upstream performance on FibreMAX plans - or if one might observe difference performance between Chorus and other LFCs? And the fact that only a tiny minority of Residential CPE actually support upstream shapers with the capability to shape 500Mbit and of that tiny proportion an even smaller number would have it switched on and configured correctly and are not having an impact on throughput due to most CPE not having enough cycles to shape and NAT and depending on RSP PPPoE encapsulate traffic at 1GB. The only other area of concern in my view would be supply chain for physical equipment going forward. There are many areas are impacted so I can't see why core infrastructure equipment or CPE would be any different. But the fact that the NZ Internet has been such a non event after various media pundits have said "NZ is running out of internet" speaks volumes about all the effort everyone has made. Hats off to you all.

Since I'm no longer teaching, I haven't followed the details but I think they have advised people to drop the bit rate as much as feasible. Regards Brian On 30-Mar-20 18:03, ahmad.saeed(a)huawei.com wrote:

U of Auckland : Let's say 25% of their 40K students will use Zoom at any tie @1.5Mbps (HD) then that's 15Gbps added to the day time impact on Auckland _______________________________________________ NZNOG mailing list -- nznog(a)list.waikato.ac.nz To unsubscribe send an email to nznog-leave(a)list.waikato.ac.nz .